The Drought Narrative

Southern Africa has some of the most variable climate conditions in the world. This variability presents natural limitations to developing a climate projection model for the region. This coupled with the fact that the area is relatively poorly researched results in models that may not map to reality. The climate variability of the El Nino, for example, is not well-recorded in the global models, for example. Even so, most models suggest that the climate will grow even more variable with climate change. Parts of Southern Africa will be drier but this might present with other parts getting more rainfall. Overall, combined with warming, the area is projected to grow more humid.

Namibia taps its water demand from five sources to diversify its water supply: groundwater, river catchments (seasonal and perennial), rainwater harvesting, desalination and water reclamation. Out of all of these three sources are most prominent: groundwater, catchments, and water reclamation. In the capital city of Windhoek, specifically, 60% of the water is supplied by NamWater (the public entity managing Namibia’s water resources), 20% by groundwater and 30% by water reclamation. Climate change is not projected to hurt the total river water yield too much. It will become more variable but will be compensated for by an increase in water yield wherever a decrease in water is observed. In the Zambezi River basin, for example, the water demand of the people in the region due to population and economic growth will have a far greater impact on yield. Water reclamation has the potential for increased yield with population and economic growth and other strategies of water reuse have shown promise. With the increased stress on the groundwater, low recharge rates, and higher evaporation rates, the groundwater supply will experience immense loss.

At such an uncertain time, a narrative approach in governance can help us effectively manage resources and ensure the most vulnerable people in the region are aided. One such example is an analysis of the 2015 to 2017 Windhoek drought. Tensions among all the actors involved in the narrative had been building up for a while. The water levels had become drastically low compared to the demand they needed to satisfy. The City of Windhoek (CoW) had a lack of funding which prevented them from recharging the aquifer. The flow in this narrative is:

The Ministry of Agriculture, Water, and Forestry (MAWF), the Namibia Water Corporation (NamWater) and the CoW jointly manage the water resources for the city of Windhoek. Highly variable rainfall patterns over preceding years had resulted in the drought in 2015. The complication arose that water security had correctly been identified as a precarious problem in the city. However, there were differing views on what water insecurity actually meant. Actors such as the informal settlers blamed the lack of recognition of the informal settlements in the city. CoW blamed it on rainfall patterns, climate change, and primarily on the national government. Climate change was identified as a recurring theme in this narrative with the CoW often situating the city woes in the context of climate change. However, there was a lack of decisiveness on how best to approach reducing the city's vulnerability to climate change. The MAWF, forming the point of view of the government, is seen as both the hero and the villain. It acts as the villain by its indecisive nature at tackling the issue and dismissiveness at proposed preventive solutions like the Water Aquifer Recharge Scheme. Eventually, it becomes the hero by providing funds for the aquifer recharge scheme to be implemented. The informal settlers are seen as the worst sufferers of this crisis. Through this narrative structure, it becomes clear that there was a lack of responsibility among the different actors as well. The CoW depended on NamWater for providing the city with water supply and NamWater further placed the responsibility on MAWF for providing funds for different projects. 

The future of the city remains uncertain as the population and urbanization growth rate show an upward trend. The narrative formal also reveals potential solutions for the drought crisis in the future. Technical solutions like upgrading existing water reclamation plants, refurbishing dams that had accumulated silt, and the possibility of a desalination plant. Governance solutions included closing the incompliance that exists between the policies and their implementation. The narrative also reveals that there is a lack of decentralization with the central government retaining control over water resources although the city municipality has been proactive in recent years. 

References: 

1. Scott, Dianne, et al. "The story of water in windhoek: a narrative approach to interpreting a transdisciplinary process." Water 10.10 (2018): 1366.
2. Wilhelm, Martha. Impact of climate change in Namibia: A case study of Omusati region. Diss. 2013.
3. Spear, Dian, et al. "Vulnerability and responses to climate change in drylands: The case of Namibia." CARIAA-ASSAR Working Paper. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. Available online at: www. assar. uct. ac. za (2018).
4. Beck, Lucas, and Thomas Bernauer. "How will combined changes in water demand and climate affect water availability in the Zambezi river basin?." Global Environmental Change 21.3 (2011): 1061-1072.